The electoral threat of another Trump indictment

By | June 7, 2023

Aaron Blake writes:

The pollster YouGov recently provided the most in-depth data on views of Trump’s legal jeopardy since shortly after his indictment in late March. It tested which of Trump’s various legal problems were viewed as potentially “serious crimes,” and how much people regard such “serious crimes” as being disqualifying.

The first thing to note: As with previous polls, people are less concerned about the charges Trump faces in Manhattan. While 52 percent of Americans regard it as a “serious crime” to falsify business records to conceal hush money payments to an adult-film star — the lowest percentage of five issues tested — 65 percent say the same about taking highly classified documents from the White House and obstructing efforts to retrieve them.

Among just Republicans, while 28 percent say the former is serious, 42 percent say the latter is.

This would suggest that there is a more significant universe of people who could be turned off by a classified documents indictment. And crucially, that could stretch beyond a small majority of voters if the case is strong.

Much also depends on how much people would regard a conviction as being disqualifying. And that’s where this poll is especially helpful. [Continue reading…]

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