Yale Climate Connections reports:

For decades, many economists’ analyses seemed to justify inaction on weaning the economy from fossil fuels, saying the astronomical cost of such rapid transformation would strangle economic growth. These experts were heeded over scientists who warned that acting too slowly would court climate catastrophe.

But in recent years, more economists have begun to agree that the short-term costs of aggressive action are not as high as once thought, while the long-term costs of inaction are much steeper. A new working paper by two climate scientists and one climate economist, using the most up-to-date data available, concludes the best path for the global economy would involve a rapid and dramatic cut in climate pollution to meet the ambitious Paris target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures — a target that is quickly slipping out of reach.

The new study adds to research over the past decade that has incorporated newer, more realistic representations of climate damages into economic models. Several other updated analyses also have concluded that meeting the Paris targets would result in the best economic outcome. Fewer experts are basing their advice on prior studies that actually concluded a potentially catastrophic amount of global warming would be economically optimal.

“Based on everything we think we know about technology, climate damages, etc. it would indeed be ‘optimal’ to cut emissions massively now,” said the paper’s co-author Gernot Wagner. Achieving such rapid decarbonization would require climate policies commensurate with a global carbon price of about $250 per ton of carbon dioxide today but declining to below $40 per ton in 2100 as the prices for clean technology come down. [Continue reading…]