Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a “red wave” weren’t just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with “negative sentiment.” He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream.
Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGA’s hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy.
Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Biden’s age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 — and possibly win big.
For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits’ tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. [Continue reading…]