Michael Hirsh writes:

As Russian President Vladimir Putin readies a new offensive in his stalled war with Ukraine, strategists still talk of some form of Ukraine’s “Finlandization”—a kind of cowed neutrality—as a possible negotiated solution. But Finland itself may be about to tilt the balance dramatically the other way—and perhaps hand Putin his biggest defeat yet.

On Wednesday, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin at a joint news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said a decision whether to discard Finland’s post-Cold War policy of nonalignment and join NATO would be made in “weeks rather than months.” A new defense white paper detailing that prospect was sent to Finland’s parliament the same day, and at a news conference in Helsinki, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen noted Finland already has “full interoperability with NATO.” Sweden, acting in concert with Finland, also took a notably bolder position this week in declaring it too is beginning an active debate about joining NATO.

It could take up to a year for Finland and Sweden to achieve formal accession to NATO, since the move requires all 30 alliance members to approve it. But a decision to apply by both countries, which traditionally seek to coordinate defense moves, could abruptly alter the overall strategic situation. Nearly two months into Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western strategists are increasingly skeptical that he can be stopped. Following the Russian retreat from Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, Putin began signaling he was about to launch a new—and likely very aggressive—offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of the Donbas this week. Putin also declared peace talks to be at a “dead end.” Meanwhile senior officials from Washington to Berlin remain bogged down in debates over whether they can afford the political risk of tougher sanctions and more offensive arms transfers to Ukraine.

Now, the very Western alliance of democracies that Putin has turned into his rhetorical enemy will likely be expanding both its territory and muscle. With Turkey buttressing NATO’s south and the Baltic states taking up the middle of the eastern lines of the alliance, Finland and Sweden’s NATO presence in the north would signal precisely the sort of grand alliance Putin and other nationalists have been fearing. “Their membership would fundamentally change the Northern European security landscape for sure,” said Sean Monaghan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. [Continue reading…]