Harry Enten writes:

Democratic hopes for passing big legislation through the Senate rely on Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. Both have made things difficult for Senate Democrats because they are moderates who have been hesitant to pass big spending packages.

But while Democrats are lucky to have a Democrat of any ideological persuasion representing West Virginia, they may not be getting the best bang for their buck from Sinema.

Sinema has, for the last few years, had the same ideological record as Manchin. As I’ve noted before, Manchin’s ideological record is about the best Democrats can hope for from West Virginia.

But Democrats can hope for more from an Arizona Democrat. Their party has a much easier time winning in Arizona than West Virginia.

Start with what happened in last year’s presidential election. President Joe Biden won the state of Arizona by 0.3 points. West Virginia, unlike Arizona, is a red state. Biden lost the state by 39 points. This came after Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lost the state by more than 40 points in 2016.

Arizona, on the other hand, is purple and has been chugging to the left. Biden did 4 points better than Clinton, who in turn did 6 points better than Barack Obama in 2012.

Part of what may be happening is that Sinema thinks that Arizona is a redder state than it actually is. [Continue reading…]