GOP decides equal representation is an ‘assault on democracy’
The Republican Party has won the popular vote in just one of the six presidential elections held this century — but has nevertheless held the White House for 12 of the past 20 years. Since 2000, the GOP’s Senate caucus has never represented more voters than their Democratic colleagues. Yet Republicans have controlled the upper chamber for more than half of the past two decades. Meanwhile, for the entirety of this millennium, the median House district has been at least 2 points more Republican than the nation as whole; for most of the past decade, the House map has had a pro-GOP bias of more than 4 percent.
The GOP’s capacity to wield power in excess of its popular support has had profound implications for American political life. Were the U.S. president elected by popular vote, and Congress governed by proportional representation, the GOP would never have held unified federal power this century, and a liberal majority would reign over the Supreme Court. Put differently: Under a more democratic system of representation — in which every American’s partisan preference counted equally, irrespective of where he or she lived — the GOP would have either been locked out of power for the past three decades, or else forced to moderate its agenda, as governing in defiance of the popular will wouldn’t have been an option.
As is, the Republicans’ growing dominance in rural areas, which are structurally overrepresented at every level of government, has made the party less reliant on majoritarian approval than ever before: Had Donald Trump lost the two-way popular vote by “only” 3.9 percent in 2020, he would very likely have won reelection. Meanwhile, the median U.S. state is nearly 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, giving the GOP an overwhelming advantage in the race for Senate control. Finally, the House map’s pro-GOP bias is set to increase after the next round of redistricting — if Congress doesn’t pass a law forbidding partisan gerrymandering in federal races before new districts are drawn. [Continue reading…]