Attention to the Unseen

Anton Troianovski writes: President Vladimir V. Putin long styled himself as Russia’s guarantor of stability and the uncompromising protector of its statehood. This weekend, Russian stability was nowhere to be found, and neither was Mr. Putin, who after making a brief statement on Saturday morning vanished from sight during the most dramatic challenge to his authority in his 23-year reign. In his absence, he left stunned Russians wondering how the leader of a paramilitary group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, could stage…

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Institute for the Study of War reports: The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD. Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: A day after Wagner’s mutiny showed the unexpected fragility of President Vladimir Putin’s regime, all the main players in Russia’s worst political crisis in decades stayed out of sight—leaving Russians, and the world, to wonder whether the drama was really over. Key unanswered questions include the future of Wagner’s 25,000 heavily armed troops, of the paramilitary group’s owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and of Russia’s military leadership, which failed to stop his rapid advance toward Moscow. The…

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David Remnick writes: When I asked [Mikhail] Zygar [former editor-in-chief of TV Rain] what was the most striking aspect of the uprising, he said, “Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive….

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Politico reports: President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday, a day after Russian mercenary forces reversed their plans to march on Moscow, Zelenskky said. The White House confirmed the call on Sunday afternoon. Zelenskyy and Biden discussed “the course of hostilities and the processes taking place in Russia,” Zelenskyy said in a post on Twitter. “The world must put pressure on Russia until international order is restored.” [Continue reading…] David Ignatius writes: The Biden administration’s response…

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The New York Times reports: American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter. U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said. The information shows that the United States was aware of impending…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group, said his forces will stop their march on Moscow and return to their camps to avoid bloodshed, as the Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko announced a deal to halt the armed confrontation threatening Russia. Lukashenko, who said he spent most of Saturday negotiating with Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin, said an agreement was reached “that unleashing a bloodbath on the territory of Russia was unacceptable.” The deal offered to Prigozhin…

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Meduza reports: Prigozhin “started to get restless” about two weeks ago, sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian government told Meduza, right after Putin said that mercenary groups would be required to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry if they wanted to continue serving in Ukraine. Putin himself explained that the change was necessary so that Wagner mercenaries could be “covered by social guarantees.” But Prigozhin categorically refused to sign an agreement with the agency and made unofficial…

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The Guardian reports: From the elevated deck of his command post, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, peers down with pinched eyes and furrowed brow at the expanse of scrubland and forest laid out in front of him as an assault unit of soldiers seeks to cross a heavily mined field. It is evident that the general would like a little more speed. “This isn’t a show,” says Syrskyi. The men running from trench to armoured…

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