Attention to the Unseen

Phillips Payson O’Brien writes: In times of peace, much of what anyone says about national power is guesswork. Different claims can be based on hopes, prejudices, or even simple self-interest. Analysts and experts can speak confidently about how some states are undoubtedly great powers while others are weak, that some countries are led by strategic geniuses and others by corrupt incompetents. The statements can sound eminently plausible as facts, even be downright persuasive, because there is no way of knowing…

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The New York Times reports: The most advanced weapons that the United States has so far supplied Ukraine are making an impact in their first several days on the battlefield, destroying Russian ammunition depots and command centers, American and Ukrainian officials say. Ukraine’s military had eagerly awaited the arrival of the first batch of truck-mounted, multiple-rocket launchers, whose satellite-guided rockets have a range of more than 40 miles, greater than anything Ukraine had possessed. The weapons have even won grudging…

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Army Technology reports: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year has resulted in a reaffirmation among NATO members about the need for the Alliance and the role it plays in European security. However, as the war drags on, the scale of the challenge is becoming ever clearer. Earlier this week, NATO announced that it would increase the number of forces held as rapid readiness to more than 300,000, up from around 40,000 at present, mainly based on the Alliance’s…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Dima Karmanovsky had just finished his second DJ set of the night on a recent weekend, and was catching his breath before dashing off to another club for his next job. “I haven’t had this much work since before the pandemic,” the 35-year-old disc jockey said at Blanc, a popular bar in Russia’s capital. As the invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth month, there are relatively few outward signs in Moscow and St. Petersburg of…

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Reuters reports: Russian forces abandoned the strategic Black Sea outpost of Snake Island on Thursday, in a major victory for Ukraine that could loosen the grip of Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian ports. Russia’s defence ministry said it had decided to withdraw from the outcrop as a “gesture of goodwill” to show Moscow was not obstructing U.N. efforts to open a humanitarian corridor allowing grains to be shipped from Ukraine. Ukraine said it had driven the Russian forces out after a…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: An overwhelming share of Ukrainians—some 89%—say it would be unacceptable to reach a peace deal with Moscow by ceding Ukrainian territory that Russian forces have seized in their invasion this year, a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds. The survey, conducted in conjunction with a Ukrainian polling firm, also finds that 78% of Ukrainians approve of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s response to the Russian invasion, with only 7% saying he has handled the war poorly. With…

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The Telegraph reports: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left the world on the brink of a “triple F” crisis with at least 345 million people facing food insecurity, the World Food Programme has warned. Matthew Hollingworth, the emergency coordinator for the WFP in Ukraine, said millions of extra people had been left vulnerable as a result of food, fuel and fertiliser shortages and a spike in prices triggered by the war. “We are extraordinarily concerned for more than 345 million…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is on a course to admit Finland and Sweden following an agreement with Turkey, a move that would add vast territory and new military abilities in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two Nordic countries, which had long shunned joining the alliance, abruptly changed their stance following Moscow’s attack on its neighbor on Feb. 24. Both countries applied for NATO membership a month ago, but Turkey had balked,…

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BBC News reports: Within hours of the attack on a shopping centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, false and unproven claims began circulating online. Stories were spread by Russian Telegram channels and by Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations. They included rumours that the attack was “false” or “staged” – and were repeated on Russian television. On Tuesday, Russia’s defence ministry released a statement claiming the shopping centre was “non-functioning” and that the bombing of…

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The Guardian reports: Nato’s secretary general has said this week’s Madrid summit will agree the alliance’s most significant transformation for a generation, putting 300,000 troops at high readiness in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Jens Stoltenberg said the military alliance’s forces in the Baltic states and five other frontline countries would be increased “up to brigade levels” – doubled or trebled to between 3,000 and 5,000 troops. That would amount to “the biggest overhaul of our collective defence and…

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BBC News reports: There’s mounting evidence that Russian forces in occupied areas of Ukraine have been systematically stealing grain and other produce from local farmers. The BBC has talked to farmers and analysed satellite images and shipping data to track where the grain is going. A few dozen miles from the frontline, Ukrainian farmer Dmytro describes how the business he nurtured over 25 years was lost in four months of Russian occupation. The BBC tried to contact more than 200…

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The New York Times reports: As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials. Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Russia was poised to default on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday, according to holders of the bonds. The day marks the expiration of a 30-day grace period since the country was due to pay the equivalent of $100 million in dollars…

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Gitanas Nauseda, the president of Lithuania, writes: “Never again” was the oath most widely pledged after the end of World War II. Yet for more than 100 days now, Russia’s brutal war of aggression has been raging in Ukraine. The war has fundamentally challenged the security architecture of the West. NATO’s initial response was admirable. But now we must go further — by making urgently needed adjustments to the alliance and its structure. NATO must adapt to a radically changed…

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