Attention to the Unseen

Kiel Institut reports: • The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices. • US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans….

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Bloomberg reports: The European Union is in talks to potentially impose tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) of US goods if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to hit European countries with a 10% levy on Feb. 1. The EU is also weighing additional countermeasures beyond the tariffs but will first try to find a diplomatic solution, according to people familiar with the discussions. Representatives from the EU’s 27 countries met Sunday to begin preparing options. EU leaders…

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Politico reports: Donald Trump’s decision to slap tariffs on countries that have shown support for Greenland is pushing transatlantic relations to a breaking point as EU leaders contemplate ways of retaliating against Washington that until now have been unthinkable. Relations between Washington and Europe have been rocky for months as the U.S. president has wavered on support for Ukraine, pressured EU countries into accepting a lopsided trade deal and forced NATO allies to massively ramp up their spending on defense….

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The Wall Street Journal reports: A surge in exports powered China’s growth last year, defying expectations that a trade war with the U.S. would hobble the world’s second-biggest economy. China’s gross domestic product expanded 5% last year when adjusted for deflation, according to data released Monday by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That met Beijing’s official growth target and is in line with the 5% real GDP growth notched in 2024. At the beginning of last year, many analysts…

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Politico reports: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spent months laying the groundwork for a smooth transition at the Federal Reserve that wouldn’t rattle markets. That plan is now in disarray. The Justice Department’s criminal investigation into whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell misled Congress about renovations at the Fed headquarters — and allegations over who leaked the news — has the White House in damage-control mode. Officials are scrambling to reassure markets and create distance from an episode that aides say was…

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Stuart Anderson writes: Government data show the Trump administration’s immigration policies reducing the number of foreign-born workers did not help U.S.-born workers in 2025. The latest data indicate a substantial drop in foreign-born workers did not translate into better labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers or encourage more workers to enter the labor force. The U.S.-born unemployment rate increased over the past 12 months. Trump officials, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, predicted fewer immigrant workers would…

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Rogé Karma writes: So, about all that Venezuelan oil. Although President Trump has declared that America’s oil companies will soon “go in” to Venezuela and “spend billions of dollars” to rebuild that country’s petroleum industry, the administration is making two huge assumptions. First, that unleashing Venezuelan oil would yield lower energy prices for American consumers and giant profits for American companies. Second, that unlike previous administrations, which got bogged down for decades in failed nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan,…

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The New York Times reports: The European Union, overcoming deep dissension among its members, gave the green light to a sweeping trade pact with four South American countries on Friday that would create one of the largest free-trade zones in the world, connecting markets with more than 700 million people. The agreement offers a stark contrast to the amped-up aggression on display this week from the Trump administration. As Europe worked to extend an era of economic collaboration, the United…

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Dean Baker writes: It’s clear to all but the determinedly ignorant that Europe and the United States under Donald Trump are no longer allies. Trump is prepared to go to war to extend his racist vision of the world. Trump is not using euphemisms or code words; he wants white power and as long as European countries are open to immigrants from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, they will be on his enemies list. The prospect of a hostile United…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: Investors appeared to like the idea that Venezuela could become a new frontier for U.S. oil companies, or a bigger one for Chevron. Chevron’s shares rose about 5% Monday. Exxon Mobil’s shares rose about 2%; ConocoPhillips was up almost 3%. For now, Chevron has no plans to increase spending or boost production significantly, people familiar with the matter said. The Houston oil giant is wary of committing new capital there until the country is more…

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Judd Legum writes: This June, when Trump sought funds to bankroll a primary challenger to Thomas Massie (R-KY), who raised Trump’s ire by supporting the release of the Epstein Files, Singer contributed $1 million, the largest contribution. Since Trump was first elected in 2016, Singer has met personally with Trump at least four times. “Paul just left and he’s given us his total support,” Trump declared after meeting with Singer at the White House in February 2017. “I want to…

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Reuters reports: Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that President Donald Trump promised just hours following Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces. The South American country may have the world’s largest estimated oil reserves, but output has plummeted over the past decades amid mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign firms after Venezuela nationalized oil operations in the…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: For months, the U.S. sold its pressure campaign against Venezuela as a way to curtail drug trafficking. Now, it’s about getting American energy companies access to one of the world’s largest oil bounties. The Trump administration’s move to oust Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in a surprise military operation early Saturday will pave the way for U.S. oil companies to regain a foothold in the South American nation, President Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago press conference….

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