Attention to the Unseen

  The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have raised fuel costs and caused shortages of key fertilizers around the world, wreaking havoc on the agricultural industry. Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London, says the effects could be felt for a long time, particularly in the Global South. “About a third of the world’s basic fertilizers now pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” says Hanieh, who…

Read More Read More

Damien Cave writes: When the war in Iran started on Feb. 28, Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected. Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic….

Read More Read More

The Wall Street Journal reports: The United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a deeper crisis, U.S. officials said. U.A.E. Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington last week, the officials said. The Emiratis emphasized that they had so far…

Read More Read More

The Washington Post reports: As stocks soared this week and oil prices dropped amid an apparent cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran, it may have left the impression that the energy shock that rattled the world would quickly fade, along with the risk of sending the global economy into recession. The optimism may have been short-lived. On Saturday, Iran’s military announced it would reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, throwing the critical waterway’s status into doubt….

Read More Read More

Jason Sattler writes: Everyone has finally picked up the pattern. When the stock market is open, Donald Trump is a peacemaker — Mr. Art of the Deal. Then the closing bell rings and the monster awakes. He becomes the sort of bloodthirsty beast who nods along to Pete Hegseth quoting Pulp Fiction as if it’s the Bible. And the march to global war continues. The rally that followed his latest peace headfake made real people real money. The peace was…

Read More Read More

Javier Blas writes: Over the past decade, China has built the world’s largest oil emergency stockpile — a multi-layered cache of strategic and commercial reserves with more than a billion barrels. Washington probably hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands at the negotiating table, as it has done previously: In 2023, it brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But most of the leverage Beijing had over Tehran rested on the money it was paying for…

Read More Read More

The Guardian reports: A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned. Against an increasingly volatile backdrop, the Washington-based fund said the economic damage from the Middle East conflict was steadily rising as it cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact from the war so far. In its half-yearly update, the IMF said the UK would suffer the sharpest…

Read More Read More

Politico reports: American forces began their blockade of Iranian ports on Monday, even as allies scrambled to understand how it will work — and how the Trump administration will avoid sparking new showdowns with the move. More than a dozen U.S. warships in the region are available to take part, according to one U.S. official, including the USS Tripoli, which has an embarked Marine unit aboard trained to interdict and board ships. Additional details remain scarce — including how long…

Read More Read More

Reuters reports: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high through November’s midterm elections, ​a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from his decision to attack Iran six weeks ago. “It could be, or the same, or maybe a little ‌bit higher, but it should be around the same,” Trump, who is in Miami for the weekend, told Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo” when asked whether the…

Read More Read More

The Wall Street Journal reports: In just six weeks, the Iran War has shattered a system of global trade that has enriched people and nations for more than a century: the freedom to sail the open seas. The Strait of Hormuz long functioned as an artery for the world’s maritime economy. But that 30-mile-wide waterway is now a monument to a new global disorder. As some 20,000 sailors effectively held hostage at sea digested President Trump’s cease-fire announcement this week—contingent…

Read More Read More