Attention to the Unseen

Paul Krugman writes: There’s an old line about military analysis: “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals talk about logistics.” Well, when it comes to taking the pulse of financial markets, amateurs talk about stocks, but professionals talk about bond and currency markets. That’s because bond and currency markets are generally less driven by emotion. There’s no “meme gambling investing” in bond and currency markets. And these markets are both signaling major loss of faith in America. First, about tariffs: It’s…

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The New York Times reports: A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy. The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a…

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The Wall Street Journal reports: In the years since President Trump’s first trade war with China, Beijing has built an arsenal of tools to hit the U.S. where it hurts. Now, it is getting ready to deploy them in full. China is increasing tariffs on all U.S. imports to 84%, a response to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports of 104% that went into effect at midnight Wednesday. It also added six U.S. companies including defense and aerospace-related firms Shield…

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Konrad Yakabuski writes: It has taken fewer than 100 days for Donald Trump to transform the United States from the world’s most reliable safe haven for global investors into a speculative bet, a country too unpredictable, unstable and lawless in which to risk storing their assets. That is quite the feat. This week, the floundering U.S. President was finally brought to heel, if only momentarily, when investors dumped U.S. Treasury bonds, in part a reaction to his erratic policy shifts…

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Rachael Bade writes: The vast, impressive coalition that catapulted Trump back into the White House started to fray as the MAGA faithful took stock of the shock tariffs. Start with the sniping on display from Trump’s allies in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street, including many who were openly balking at his full-bore embrace of protectionism. Even Elon Musk, Trump’s most prominent adviser, reportedly tried to get Trump to back off his tariff obsession, then took to openly attacking top…

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The New York Times reports: A whopping increase in tariffs, followed by a whopping retaliation. Nationalist Chinese bloggers comparing President Trump’s levies to a declaration of war. China’s Foreign Ministry vowing that Beijing will “fight to the end.” For years, the world’s two biggest powers have flirted with the idea of an economic decoupling as tensions between them have risen. The acceleration this week of their trade relationship’s deterioration has made the prospect of such a divorce seem closer than…

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Heather Long writes: President Donald Trump is pushing the economy into a recession. The early signs are already apparent with autoworker layoffs in Indiana and Michigan, a stock market sell-off in recent days and Americans pulling back on spending. But as Trump’s tariffs took effect in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, something even more alarming occurred: panic in the bond markets. Investors started dumping U.S. government bonds. They sold and sold and sold. This is not normal. Typically, U.S….

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The Guardian reports: A libertarian group that has been funded by Leonard Leo and Charles Koch has mounted a legal challenge against Donald Trump’s tariff regime, in a sign of spreading rightwing opposition to a policy that has sent international markets plummeting. The New Civil Liberties Alliance filed a suit against Trump’s imposition of import tariffs on exports from China, arguing that doing so under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – which the president has invoked to justify…

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Politico reports: During the first two turbulent months of President Donald Trump’s term, the White House has shrugged off scrutiny of its most controversial policies with a simple assertion: The American people voted for this. Now, Trump allies and GOP voters spooked by the tariff-induced market crash are beginning to respond en masse: No, we didn’t. Trump won in November because many voters saw him as an antidote to their economic malaise; as a candidate, he frequently promised to lower…

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CNN reports: Elon Musk took another jab at President Donald Trump’s senior trade adviser Peter Navarro Tuesday, calling him a “moron” on social media as the Tesla CEO further splits from the White House’s tariffs plan. Musk’s remarks were in response to a CNBC interview with Navarro on that aired Monday, during which the White House trade adviser discussed how Tesla’s position as a “car assembler” rather than a car manufacturer could be at odds with Trump’s tariff policies. The…

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The New York Times reports: Wall Street billionaires are not used to being on the outside looking in. But that is where they find themselves after President Trump ignored their appeals to call off his tariff plans which they fear could endanger the economy. With the backdrop of rapidly mounting stock market losses, corporate titans have worked every angle — phone calls, social media and even a typically staid shareholder letter — to try to change Mr. Trump’s mind. The…

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CNN reports: Wealthy business leaders are turning on US President Donald Trump over his plan to impose a colossal set of tariffs on America’s trading partners, as losses mount on stock markets around the world. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, warned Sunday that going ahead with the new tariffs was tantamount to launching an “economic nuclear war.” On Wednesday, Trump said he would impose significantly higher “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries that have the…

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Brent Neiman writes: My first question, when the White House unveiled its tariff regime, was, “How on earth did they calculate such huge rates?” Reciprocal tariffs, after all, are supposed to treat other countries the way they treat us, and foreign tariffs on American goods are nowhere near these levels. The next day it got personal. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released its methodology and cited an academic paper produced by four economists, including me, seemingly in support…

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The Daily Beast reports: Elon Musk has taken a massive swipe at President Donald Trump’s trade adviser amid the deepening economic chaos caused by the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. In a Saturday X post, the Tesla CEO ripped Peter Navarro as someone who “ain’t built s–t” and shaded his Harvard PhD in economics as “a bad thing, not a good thing.” Musk, who’s openly expressed disdain for Ivy League institutions, commented, “yup” under a quote from U.S. economist Thomas Sowell…

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