Bob Henson writes:

Even a seemingly minor change in average temperature, such as the 1°C rise observed globally over the last century, makes the most extreme heat events much more probable—and the greater the extreme, the bigger the proportional change, as shown in the illustration embedded below.

The good ol' small-increases-in-the-mean-lead-to-large-increases-in-extremes bit.

Works everytime, everywhere. https://t.co/ZUgmI1TBzz pic.twitter.com/nhqUzPLVFJ

— Gernot Wagner (@GernotWagner) July 25, 2019

There’s bitter irony in the fact that the birthplace of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change experienced the “long tail” effects of human-produced climate heating in full force this week, while much of the United States—which has announced its intention to leave the agreement—basked in unusually cool weather for July. The two hardly balance each other out, although some observers have implied as much. In fact, July has a very good shot at being Earth’s warmest month on record. [Continue reading…]