Nahal Toosi writes:

No one seems to have a solid strategy to win the war in Iran.

The situation is reminiscent of the darkest days of the Iraq war, in the mid-2000s, when the U.S. seemed unable to pull that country back from insurgency and civil war. But while the death rate in the Iran conflict has so far been lower, the stakes are much higher, current and former U.S. officials tell me.

The Iran fight is having a more global impact than the epic bloodshed in Iraq. Just look at the economic pain from the Islamist regime in Tehran seizing the Strait of Hormuz. In the 2000s, the U.S. faced fewer challenges for global influence and could afford a major failure. Now, America’s credibility is sinking due to its Middle East missteps while China’s star is on the rise.

President Donald Trump is further damaging America’s reputation by constantly vacillating about what to do in Iran and by fraying U.S. alliances with countries that could help, people on both sides of the aisle say.

“The moment is extremely dangerous, and the Trump administration is showing uncertainty and incompetence,” said Elliott Abrams, a longtime Middle East hawk who worked for Trump in his first term.

Dan Shapiro, who served as a senior Pentagon official in the Biden administration, agreed. “It’s common to have difficult trade-offs, but it is rare to find ourselves in a cul-de-sac of our own making with literally only bad options,” he said.

When I asked current and former U.S. officials what had to be done to win, the most common first response was a primal scream of sorts that translated into, “We never should have started this war.” That was followed by: “What do you mean by ‘win’?”

It’s a fair question, and one the White House has failed to answer as it keeps shifting its goals. Trump launched the war bent on ending Iran’s nuclear program, destroying many of its military capabilities and hinting at regime change. Now he seems most intent on freeing the strait from Iran’s grip.

Among some at the lower levels of the administration, there’s a sense of despair.

“I don’t see a way out of this,” one U.S. official familiar with the administration’s Middle East strategy told me. The official argued that the Trump team “fundamentally misunderstands” Iran’s rulers. Trump and his aides “have always felt like they can just keep applying pain and Iran will crumble, but the regime is not going to crumble.” [Continue reading…]