Abbas Al Lawati writes:

Iran has brought days of relative calm in the Middle East to an end after launching what the US called a “surprise” attack in a striking change to the pattern of fighting.

Rather than responding to a fresh American strike, Tehran chose to restart the fight itself, showing a growing willingness to use military force to shape the course of the war on its own terms.

This in turn sets the stage for fresh escalation. “We are going to beat the f**king sh*t out of them,” US President Donald Trump told Fox News Wednesday morning. “We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”

That threat could hardly have surprised Tehran, which launched its missiles knowing they might bring US bombers back.

Trump had attributed last week’s pause to a request from Iran because “they asked us very nicely” and wanted talks. Tehran never publicly committed to the recent pause, although a senior Iranian official said “our armed forces also decided not to take military action.”

That makes Iran’s decision to resume fire all the more significant.

Hours after publicly signaling that it would match the US restraint, Tehran targeted American forces – apparently deciding that raising the pressure was worth the risk of restarting the nightly bombardment.

“Something appears to have changed fundamentally in Iran’s approach, particularly regarding its willingness to initiate a strike if it considers that to be the only viable option,” Hamid Reza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote on X.

Iran’s strike came soon after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Washington, DC, which the Israeli leader described as “one of the best conversations” the two have had following growing friction between the pair. Hours before the meeting, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel had wanted to strike Iranian energy infrastructure but had been held back by the Trump administration.

“The attack appears to have been a signal related to Netanyahu’s visit to the White House earlier in the day,” wrote Azizi. “It suggests that Iran’s military strategy may have changed and that Tehran is now prepared to launch a preemptive strike if it detects signs of an imminent threat.” [Continue reading…]