U.S. intelligence says military action unlikely to change Iran’s negotiating position
Iran’s government is unlikely to soften its negotiating position as a result of the ongoing US military strikes, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former US officials.
Analysts at US spy agencies have also concluded that Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials told The Washington Post — an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations.
The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity.
The findings, which have been briefed to the US administration, appear to underscore the dilemma President Donald Trump faces in a war that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began in late February.
Trump’s current course of ever-expanding attacks appears to have led to a stalemate. But with the war deeply unpopular at home, continuing escalation by the US, such as the possible introduction of ground troops, poses political risks for the president with no guarantee of military success.
With the prospect of a wider war erupting again, both Iran and the US signaled they were open to fresh negotiations, although no progress was reported.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US remains open to a diplomatic solution in Iran and that parts of Iran’s government are also open to it, but hardliners have gotten in the way. [Continue reading…]
Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf have prompted U.S. intelligence analysts to investigate whether Russia assisted by providing targeting information or advanced drone technology, said four people familiar with U.S. intelligence.
These people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters, said U.S. intelligence officials have not yet reached firm conclusions about the possible Russian involvement in the attacks on CIA facilities. But they cited the strikes’ effectiveness and apparent precision, as well as Russia’s broader technical support for Iran, as possible evidence.
Reuters and other media have reported — and U.S. officials have acknowledged — that Russia has provided targeting and other support for Iran in its strikes on U.S. targets in the Gulf region generally, but the intelligence community’s investigation of possible Russian involvement in supporting the CIA facility attacks has not been previously disclosed. [Continue reading…]
Yemen’s Houthi fighters claim to have attacked shipping in the Red Sea – a move that threatens to further escalate the already volatile situation in the Middle East.
By forcing ships to turn back from the narrow Bab El Mandeb strait, they have threatened to choke off the main maritime route from Europe to Asia.
It comes as US-Iran strikes continue and while a deal to develop Saudi Arabia’s nuclear industry prompts fears of an arms race. [Continue reading…]