U.S. intelligence warns Israel is likely to undermine Iran peace deal, officials say
U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine President Donald Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran, as the Israeli premier faces intense political pressure to continue waging his country’s war in Lebanon, current and former U.S. officials said.
Israel appears intent on maintaining military operations against Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, an aim that would flout a core element of the fledgling agreement that calls for an end to hostilities in that country, according to intelligence reports, including one circulated this week, said the officials.
The analysis comes at a moment of growing tension between Netanyahu’s government and Trump administration officials, who have publicly warned Israel against launching attacks against Hezbollah that might derail Trump’s deal.
On Friday, Israel launched airstrikes across southern Lebanon in response to a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four Israeli soldiers. As clashes continued, U.S. and Iranian officials said they postponed talks due to begin in Switzerland on Friday. Vice President JD Vance, who was to lead the U.S. delegation, postponed his trip.
If Netanyahu redoubles his military campaign in Lebanon, he would not only threaten the framework for an agreement signed by the United States and Iran on Wednesday, but he could rupture the relationship with an American president that has been integral to his political fortune.
Speaking at a news conference in France on Wednesday to announce the U.S.-Iran “memorandum of understanding,” Trump said that he has a “little dispute over Lebanon” with Netanyahu and has urged the Israeli leader to not “knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah.”
The new U.S. intelligence report concludes that in the face of national elections this fall, Netanyahu’s political survival is linked to showing his domestic audience that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he is intent on escalating the fighting with Hezbollah, said one U.S. official familiar with the report. The official, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.
The U.S. intelligence report also describes Israel’s frustration with the terms of the Trump peace memorandum, which undermine its broader objective of maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran, according to a current and former official.
The report conveys Israel’s perception that the agreement could constrain its ability to defend itself against Hezbollah, one former official said.
Trump administration officials insist that the terms do not prevent Israel from retaliating against Hezbollah if fired upon and that Netanyahu’s concerns pale in comparison to the need to complete a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to stave off a global economic crisis. [Continue reading…]