The New York Times reports:

In mid-February, shortly before President Trump launched the war on Iran, the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps conducted live-fire drills in its coastal waters. Iranian state media publicized the exercise, whose official name made its purpose clear: “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz.”

The exercise amounted to a flashing red warning light to the Trump administration — one that, for reasons that are still not fully clear, went largely unheeded.

Within days of the war’s start, Iran’s military exerted control over the strait, menacing commercial tankers with boats, missiles and drones. Shipping ground to a halt. Energy prices soared. And Mr. Trump was backed into a strategic corner.

Three months later, Iran’s control of the strait has become its most powerful weapon, a source of huge leverage in negotiations with Mr. Trump over the country’s nuclear program.

A president used to bending opponents to his will has struggled to conceal his exasperation. In an April social media post, Mr. Trump profanely demanded that the “crazy bastards” leading Iran open the strait, “or you’ll be living in Hell.” Iran’s military mocked Mr. Trump’s threat as a sign of helplessness.

But Iran’s response has been neither crazy nor surprising, say numerous former U.S. officials who spent hours war-gaming Tehran’s likely response to a major U.S. attack.

For years, the U.S. government has conducted war games dealing with potential conflicts with Iran, including ones at the Pentagon attended by dozens of military officials and policymakers. Over and over, participants say, they concluded that Iran would respond to a major American attack by closing the strait of Hormuz. [Continue reading…]