Julian Borger and Pjotr Sauer write:

The Iran and Ukraine wars are becoming more intertwined with every passing week – to the point that some analysts argue the two conflicts are beginning to merge.

Quite how each war will affect the trajectory of the other is hard to predict, but it is already clear that their interconnectedness is drawing more countries into both cauldrons, extending an arc of instability that straddles Europe and the Middle East.

From Ukraine’s point of view, the connection is nothing new. Russia began using Iranian-made Shahed drones in September 2022, seven months into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. What is new is Moscow’s return of the favour to Tehran, with a reported flow of intelligence, targeting and drones to Iran after the US-Israeli assault on 28 February.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tour of the Middle East over the past few weeks has cemented another cross-regional link between the two conflicts, sealing agreements to provide drone and anti-drone technology and training to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, while initiating security talks along similar lines with Jordan.

The two wars are also converging through global energy markets. The initial impact of the attack on Iran, along with Tehran’s response in closing down Gulf shipping through the strait of Hormuz, favoured Russia through a spike in oil and gas prices.

For Moscow, the increase in demand has provided an economic lifeline just as its economy was coming under growing strain, prompting the government to drop plans for budget cuts.

To stabilise the market, the Trump administration has eased some restrictions on Russian oil exports that were intended to pressure the Kremlin over its war in Ukraine. Furthermore, Asian countries, particularly those hit by the closure of the strait of Hormuz – including Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka – are now lining up to buy Russian oil.

In an effort to limit Russia’s windfall, Ukraine has in recent days intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. A Reuters estimate last week said up to 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity had been halted after mass Ukrainian drone attacks.

The conflicts have become so interlocked that what happens in one theatre of war now has a tangible impact on the other – a fact emphasised by European states, anxious to avoid being sucked into a spiralling Middle East conflagration. The UK defence secretary, John Healey, pointed to Putin’s “hidden hand” behind Iran’s drone tactics.

“These wars are very much interlinked,” said the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. “So if America wants the war in the Middle East to stop – Iran to stop attacking them – they should also put the pressure on Russia so that they are not able to help them.” [Continue reading…]