Dan Sabbagh writes:

If there was a moment when the absence of a US strategy on Iran was exposed, then this was it. Donald Trump demanded on Saturday that the UK, China, France, Japan and others participate in a naval escort for oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz.

Despite launching the attack on Iran, with Israel, the White House does not seem to have fully anticipated what was likely to follow. Iran had few good military options for fighting back, but attacking US bases, US allies and merchant shipping in the Gulf was the most obvious response – to try to impose costs on the west.

Iran had been gearing up for a long period of resistance, with Ali Khamenei, the former supreme leader, pressing subordinates to name four levels of succession in the expectation that he and others might be killed.

So far, in the two-week bombing war, the US has focused on Iran’s navy and missile sites. But this has not managed to eliminate the asymmetric threat posed against undefended merchant ships. Sixteen have been attacked, according to the Lloyd’s List journal, and tankers do not want to risk the journey through the strait.

Ten days ago, Trump urged tanker owners to “show some guts” and make the passage, even though the US navy appeared unwilling to undertake it. “The US has not done it because the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group can sit 200km off Oman and strike Iran with little risk,” said Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. [Continue reading…]