A report by the U.S.-funded Famine Early Warning System Network published on December 23, says:

Israel’s near-total blockade of humanitarian and commercial food supplies to besieged areas of North Gaza Governorate (including Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun) has been in place for nearly 80 days. As of November 16, OCHA estimated 65,000-75,000 people remained in North Gaza Governorate, including civilians who have been unable to or prevented from evacuating. More recent satellite-derived imagery suggests thousands of people evacuated in early December, and efforts are underway to update the estimated size of the remaining population; an update from the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) on December 22 suggests the population may be as low as 10,000-15,000. Based on the collapse of the food system and worsening access to water, sanitation, and health services in these areas, coupled with a comparative analysis of trends in food consumption and acute malnutrition indicator data in late 2023/early 2024, it is highly likely that the food consumption and acute malnutrition thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) have now been surpassed in North Gaza Governorate. In the absence of a change to Israeli policy on the entry of food and nutrition supplies to this area, FEWS NET expects non-trauma mortality levels will pass the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold between January and March 2025, with at least 2-15 people dying per day.

The Associated Press reports:

A lead organization monitoring for food crises around the world withdrew a new report this week warning of imminent famine in north Gaza under what it called Israel’s “near-total blockade,” after the U.S. asked for its retraction, U.S. officials told the Associated Press. The move follows public criticism of the report from the U.S. ambassador to Israel.

The rare public dispute drew accusations from prominent aid and human-rights figures that the work of the U.S.-funded Famine Early Warning System Network, meant to reflect the data-driven analysis of unbiased international experts, has been tainted by politics. A declaration of famine would be a great embarrassment for Israel, which has insisted that its 15-month war in Gaza is aimed against the Hamas militant group and not against its civilian population.

U.S. ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew earlier this week called the warning by the internationally recognized group inaccurate and “irresponsible.” Lew and the U.S. Agency for International Development, which funds the monitoring group, both said the findings failed to properly account for rapidly changing circumstances in north Gaza.

Humanitarian and human rights officials expressed fear of U.S. political interference in the world’s monitoring system for famines. The U.S. Embassy in Israel and the State Department declined comment. FEWS officials did not respond to questions.

“We work day and night with the U.N. and our Israeli partners to meet humanitarian needs — which are great — and relying on inaccurate data is irresponsible,” Lew said Tuesday.

USAID confirmed to the AP that it had asked the famine-monitoring organization to withdraw its stepped-up warning issued in a report dated Monday. [Continue reading…]

The FEWS Gaza Strip Food Security Alert can still be viewed on the Internet Archive.