Hassan Hassan writes:

The stunningly successful offensive by Syrian rebels last week accomplished what years of bloodshed by larger factions could not. Within four days, the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, captured much of Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities, and now controls most of Aleppo Province and all of Idlib Province. Long-entrenched front lines held by government forces and fortified by Russian firepower crumbled.

Underlying the success of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a crucial development: It has evolved from being part of one of the most brutal transnational jihadist movements in modern history to positioning itself as a nationalist force — and, for many, a stabilizing actor.

The group was born as an Islamic State branch and later joined with Al Qaeda, and it remains designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and other Western countries. But after formally pivoting away from international jihad in 2016, it became the dominant force in Syria’s northwest, one of the few areas outside of Syrian government control.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has established a bureaucracy to oversee education, health care and justice. It has tried to signal moderation by instituting a less harsh brand of Islamic practice, and to attract technocrats. The group has displayed more discipline than many nationalist counterparts, urging its fighters to respect Christians and other minorities and meeting with religious leaders to reassure them of protection. It played a crucial role in fighting ISIS and eradicating Al Qaeda’s remnants in Syria.

The group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, said Hayat Tahrir al-Sham would apply its tolerant policy to Aleppo, withdraw armed fighters from civilian areas “in the coming weeks” and consider dissolving itself in place of “new institutions,” according to Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser to the International Crisis Group. Whether the group actually follows through, Ms. Khalifa said, “remains to be seen.” [Continue reading…]