Julian Borger writes:

The sight of missiles descending on Tel Aviv on Tuesday night was the clearest sign imaginable that the regional conflict so widely feared over the past year may finally have ignited.

This is the second Iranian aerial attack on Israel in less than six months, but last time there was several days’ notice; the much slower drones and cruise missiles arrived first, and the principal target was a military base in the underpopulated Negev desert.

This time, the ballistic missiles arrived first at the end of a 12-minute flight time and the targets appear to have included dense urban areas. In the local press, Israeli officials were being quoted as describing the assault as an Iranian declaration of war.

Despite the fact that there were no casualties, the fact that cities were targeted will be critical to Israel’s response. After Iran’s April attack, the reprisal was largely performative. The only target hit inside Iran was an air defence outpost on a military base near Isfahan.

After Israeli citizens were so clearly threatened on Tuesday night, Benjamin Netanyahu can be expected to respond in a far more comprehensive manner. The options will already have been drawn up, ready for the war cabinet to select, and the target list can be expected to be substantial. It could include Iran’s nuclear facilities. [Continue reading…]