Dimi Reider writes:

For much of the last year, the prospect of an all-out war in the North was presented to Israelis as a pitfall to avoid. Israel, they were told, doesn’t want a second war – especially not one that could escalate to a regional one with Iran – and neither does Hezbollah. All in all, both parties would prefer a long-term accommodation or regularisation (hasdarah). Israel wants Hezbollah to stop firing and ideally move its forces further north, Hezbollah wants to stay put but was more than willing to stop firing if a ceasefire in Gaza was achieved. The sensible thing, therefore, was to try to avoid escalation but maintain a tit-for-tat balanced enough for neither party to lose face; work hard on a hasdarah; but mostly concentrate on ending the war in Gaza before even thinking of decisively engaging Hezbollah.

That narrative went out the window as pagers and walkie-talkie began blowing up in Lebanon last week, with even hitherto reluctant defence minister Yoav Galant and the skeptical army leadership whipping round to declare themselves in favour of a new front. This seeming u-turn produced some rather extravagant Orwellianisms. The new war, Israelis are now told, was not chosen in preference to a hasdarah vis. Hezbollah: hasdarah vis. Hezbollah is the whole purpose of the war. Or, as a presumably straight-faced American diplomat put it to Axios’s Barak Ravid, Israel’s strategy is “escalation to de-escalate”.

Escalating to de-escalate and a declaring war for a peace that was on offer anyway might be seen as bordering on the inanity. But there is a reading in which Israel’s strategy makes a degree of brutal, calculated sense – especially once you take human lives, Lebanese and Israeli alike, out of the equation. And seen that way, the u-turn is not much of a u-turn at all – merely a detour. So here is the rationale I personally discern in Israel’s recklessly belligerent behaviour – with the caveat, of course, that I don’t agree with it myself, and hope everyone involved in both this escalation and in the war in Gaza find themselves in the Hague as soon as possible. [Continue reading…]