Der Spiegel reports:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is exasperating. For months, the narrative has been that he would prefer not to deliver any weapons at all to Ukraine, and certainly not any heavy weaponry. The chancellor, according to the scuttlebutt, has had to be forced into every single concession and then he delays the deliveries. On Wednesday, Scholz had to listen in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, as opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) lambasted him as a miserable friend to Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion. Scholz, Merz said, may even be pursuing a “hidden agenda.”

Then, it was Scholz’s turn to speak. Normally, the center-left Social Democrat (SPD) uses the opportunity to read out some prepackaged statement until his audience nods off to sleep. This week, though, he was feisty.

“We are providing comprehensive assistance,” the chancellor called out, his voice quaking and a steely look on his face. “That could also be acknowledged.” He then went on to list off everything his government had already delivered – a relatively long list, but one primarily made up of light weaponry. He also listed off the heavy weapons that are to follow: 30 Gepard anti-aircraft vehicles, to be sent at some point this summer. Seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, also to be sent this summer. Those deliveries had already been announced. But Scholz then promised the delivery of a modern anti-aircraft system called IRIS-T SLM, likely to be sent at some point this autumn. Kyiv is also to receive four MARS II multiple-launch rocket systems from the stocks of the Bundeswehr, Germany’s military.

“We are doing what we can,” Scholz said. And then, for all those who may not have gotten the message, he added: “Doing what must be done is precisely the path this government is following.”

After his speech, Scholz – as he so often does – looked quite pleased with himself. Sitting on the government bench, he exuded a sense of certainty that he had successfully managed to refute all accusations pertaining to weapons deliveries that have been leveled at him in recent weeks. But is the chancellor’s self-satisfaction really rooted in reality?

Thus far, not a single heavy weapon has been delivered directly to Ukraine by Germany. And even if all of the systems that have now been promised do ultimately make their way to the country, the extensive amount of time that Berlin has taken to finally send significant help cannot be recuperated. Every single weapon that reached Ukraine earlier could have turned the tide of war in favor of Kyiv.

Scholz and his government are clearly playing for time. Initially, they didn’t believe that the Ukrainians had a chance against Russia and sent the bare minimum necessary for plausible deniability, starting with 5,000 helmets. Later, it was a mixture of incompetence and a lack of will – and a desire to hide behind its allies. Not to mention the refusal to take international leadership.

It seems likely that Scholz would never have delivered any weapons at all without massive pressure from abroad and from within his own governing coalition. [Continue reading…]