Simon Miles, assistant professor of public policy, expert on Russia and the Soviet Union, says:

Before the very lengthy historical speech President Putin gave a couple days ago about Ukraine not having a tradition of statehood – just lie after lie – I was one of the people who didn’t think he could balance the risk/reward equation. The man that I saw giving that speech — and also in that very long, bizarre, grievance-filled speech — and also a deeply odd convening of his national security council in which he basically publicly humiliated his foreign policy aides … that man was a very different Vladimir Putin than what we’ve seen before.

We’ve never seen a version of him who was that disconnected in many senses from reality. The people around him … are supposed to be foaming at the mouth for this. They’re supposed to be the ultra-hawks who can’t wait to start this war, who are really enthusiastic. It was very clear the key players … were trying to melt into their chairs. None of these people want a part of this. Putin seems to know this and not care.

So this is a very different side of Putin than we’ve seen. There are a few factors that are shaping this. Frankly, extensive COVID isolation – or fear of COVID isolation – is one of them. Recent arrests of some Russia-linked Ukrainian oligarchs has been another.

Right now we’re seeing a Russian leader who is making strategic decisions in an extremely emotive, extremely grievance-fueled way. It’s worth noting the extent to which this is not popular in Russia.

There’s a disconnect between Putin and the Russian public. There’s a disconnect between Putin and in what any other country would be his core leadership team, which has now been kind of reduced to a gaggle of yes men and one yes woman. And that’s dangerous. There’s no other way to say it.

His comments in the declaration of war very early this morning about what he would do if the United States or any other party were to become directly involved – which was a very thinly-veiled nuclear threat – need to be taken very seriously given his present state of mind. [Continue reading…]