James Bruno writes:

Barbara Tuchman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning book The Guns of August made such a deep impression on President John F. Kennedy that he asked his cabinet members, National Security Council staff, and all Army officers to read it. And when the world faced Armageddon over the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the book’s lessons informed the commander in chief’s decision-making.

Insisting that “we are not going to bungle into war,” Kennedy turned aside the hawkish recommendations of the military in favor of deft back-channel diplomacy. In doing so, he de-escalated a crisis that perched on the razor’s edge toward nuclear holocaust. A student of history, the young president saw the peril of falling victim to rigid plans and set attitudes. As Tuchman put it, “The impetus of existing plans is always stronger than the impulse to change.”

We may be facing a similar danger today as Russian and American leaders ramp up threats over Ukraine and Moscow amasses a strong military presence on the Ukrainian border; according to U.S. intelligence reports, it may soon scale up to 175,000 troops.

If not handled skillfully, the conflict could spiral out of control. “Since 1939, the specter of an all-out conventional war in Europe between two major militaries has never been greater,” asserts the former U.S. ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul.

The saber rattling is getting louder by the day. [Continue reading…]