Brian Kahn writes:

The United Nations climate conference happening in Glasgow in less than two weeks will essentially chart a course for humanity for generations to come. That’s because this decade is one where the world must start cutting carbon emissions by nearly 8% per year or blow past a key climate guardrail.

The U.S. was slated to be a big player, showing up to the meeting known as COP26 with a major new tool to reduce carbon pollution from power plants. But thanks to a slim Democratic majority in Congress, Sen. Joe Manchin—along with every Republican in the House and Senate—could send the Biden administration with an empty hand. And for that, the whole world could suffer.

Manchin reportedly opposes what is the most surefire avenue to reduce emissions in the reconciliation bill currently stalled in the Senate. (Republicans, of course, oppose everything climate-related.) Known as the Clean Energy Performance Program (known as the CEPP and pronounced with a soft “c” in energy-nerd parlance), it would pay utilities that decarbonize at a rate greater than 4% per year and penalize those that don’t. Currently, very few utilities are meeting that pace. The U.S. average across utilities is just 2.3% per year, according to Princeton energy expert Jesse Jenkins. An analysis by modeling firm Energy Innovation found the CEPP along with tax credits for installing new renewables is the “strongest set of provisions” in the bill and could keep anywhere from 250 to 700 million metric tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

“A key feature of the CEPP is that it provides incentives for increasing clean electricity generation as well as a penalty for utilities that fall short of annual targets,” Megan Mahajan, the manager of energy policy design who co-authored the report, said in an email. “This carrot and stick approach ensures utilities actually achieve the stated targets.”

This matters to achieving President Joe Biden’s goal of decarbonizing the grid by 2035. But more importantly, it’s a lynchpin in setting the U.S. on a course to meet its newly minted Paris Agreement commitment. Biden put the U.S. down to cut carbon emissions 50% below 2005 levels. It also costs a relatively paltry $150 billion, which is just a fifth of the annual Pentagon budget.

Arriving at COP26 with the CEPP in place would show the U.S. is serious about addressing climate change. Without it, the rest of the reconciliation bill—assuming it even passes before the climate talks—is nowhere near enough to get the U.S. on track. Absent the CEPP, the U.S. won’t have a credible negotiating position. [Continue reading…]