The New York Times reports:

Economic anxieties are testing the loyalty of rural voters to the Republican Party, expanding the electoral battlefield into some of the most traditionally conservative districts across the nation and raising Democratic hopes.

For a decade, farmers and ranchers have been a core part of President Trump’s coalition, voting for him by double-digit margins in all three of his presidential races. But as the impact of his tariffs and the war in Iran fuel discontent in agricultural communities across the country, the bond between the president and rural voters is beginning to fray.

The anger is palpable from the soybean farms in Mississippi to the cattle spreads in Kansas. Ranchers are seething over the administration’s decision to drop import tariffs on foreign beef. Farmers are fuming about the higher costs of tractors, fertilizer and fuel. And Republican candidates are on the defensive in places their party has not lost in a generation.

So far, there is little indication of a large-scale shift of rural voters across partisan lines. The Democratic Party remains deeply unpopular on cultural issues, and its candidates face deep skepticism on issues like abortion and transgender rights.
Yet mounting economic frustration has raised the prospect of a farmers’ protest in this year’s midterm elections, in which some of the president’s most reliable supporters could defy his plea to “pretend” he is on the ballot and simply stay home.

“If you look in 2024, you’d see Trump voters in rural areas driving 20 miles through a storm to get their vote in,” said Dee Davis, the president of the Center for Rural Strategies, a nonpartisan advocacy group. “I don’t think there’s incentive to crawl through glass to vote for Trump this year.”

Farmers across the United States have been struggling for years with high costs for land, machinery, fertilizer and seeds, while most crop prices are down significantly from their 2022 highs. While financial shifts are expected in farming, the challenging conditions have been exacerbated by federal government policies.

Tariffs have driven up the cost of steel used to make tractors and weakened some export markets, hurting soybean farmers and ranchers. The war in Iran sent fertilizer and diesel prices skyrocketing. And deep cuts made to Medicaid as part of Mr. Trump’s signature domestic policy legislation — known as the One Big Beautiful Bill — have disproportionately hurt rural hospitals, with some forced to limit their services. [Continue reading…]