Axios reports:

President Trump told voters to pretend he’s on the ballot. Apparently they’re listening: Republicans coast to coast are getting pulled under by a violent undertow fueled by Trump’s unpopularity.

Why it matters: It’s looked bad for Republicans all year, but this week felt different — like the political environment was disintegrating in real time, one ominous data point after another.

• Most worrisome for the GOP, there’s virtually no chance the war ends, inflation cools, interest rates fall, consumer confidence rises, and economic optimism surges before the Nov. 3 election.
• That’s why Republicans fear the undertow imperils so many candidates once deemed safe.

The big picture: Predicting election outcomes is a risky business, but it may be time to expand the imagination of how ugly it could get for Republicans five weeks from now.

Start with mood music:

• This week, Trump’s disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
• Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.

• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
• Mortgage rates hit 7%.
• And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.

Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn’t far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.

• The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
• “We’re having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls,” said one national Republican pollster. “At what point do we think these guys aren’t showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?

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