Politico reports:

When American and Israeli warplanes struck Iran on Feb. 28, Israeli officials let themselves believe the alliance was entering a golden age. Four months later, they are bracing for a future where Israel stands more alone than ever.

The vice president of the United States set the stage last week, telling Israel it has almost no friends left in the world, and that it should think hard before turning on the one it has.

But the problem for Israel is much bigger than JD Vance, according to seven people, including U.S. and Israeli officials and others familiar with the relationship. Instead, they say, Vance is only the face of the new normal, in which Israel’s status as an American ally doesn’t stand above all others.

Israel had expected when President Donald Trump came into office that his America First foreign policy would include “an exception” for Israel, said an Israeli political adviser.

“That was never going to hold. We were never going to be able to stay for four years as an exception to everything else America does in its foreign policy,” the adviser said. “When the clash came, Israel was naive to think that we would be able to be exempt from those expectations.”

The chill between the sides is evident. In 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington five times. He visited once this year in February but there are no dates on the calendar for another White House visit, and phone calls have tapered off considerably, according to a person familiar with interactions between the two governments.

“I don’t think we’ve reached the worst place possible,” the person said. “There’s more to come.”

Both people, like others in this story, were granted anonymity to speak candidly about sensitivities in the relationship.

The White House said U.S.-Israel relations remain strong.

“The president and the vice president are on the same page: Israel has always been a great ally to the United States, and there has been no greater friend to Israel and a fighter for peace than President Trump,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said. “The Israel Defense Forces were incredible partners throughout Operation Epic Fury, which decimated the Iranian regime’s military capabilities in 38 short days.”

Still, Vance’s warning to Israel was unusually stark.

“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment,” he said during his press conference. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.

He noted Washington’s significant contributions to defending Israel and made a veiled suggestion that such a relationship could change.

“Anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in,” he said.

Vance’s office declined to comment, but a person close to his team said the rhetoric is an acknowledgement of what Vance sees as the new political reality.

“The vice president sees that the ground is shifting against Israel among voters, including with younger Republicans. He’s responding accordingly, with nuance instead of stridency,” the person said.

Vance’s comments stunned some Israeli officials, even though they were used to Vance being skeptical of the relationship. One called it a “low point.” [Continue reading…]