Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — favoring Democrats
A certain kind of pundit has been telling Democrats they’re on the wrong side of public opinion on Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Sohrab Ahmari, an editor at the conservative online magazine Unherd, tweeted last week that Democrats are “going all in on a case that’s 70-30 (at best) against” them.
Because there are actually lots of good people on the Left with whom I agree on various things, I feel compelled to say:
Guys, this is one of those instances where you're going all in on a case that's 70-30 (at best) against you.
(Feel free to dismiss this.)
— Sohrab Ahmari (@SohrabAhmari) January 8, 2026
It turns out that Sohrab has it exactly backwards. New polls released this week show U.S. voters breaking just 20-30% in favor of the way ICE is enforcing President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. Polls on things like zip-tying children during raids, detaining U.S. citizens, ICE agents wearing masks, and, of course, shooting and killing citizens such as Renee Good show a public that is moving dramatically away from the president on his once-best issue.The conventional wisdom in Washington throughout most of 2025 was that the president had a large edge on immigration, and that it would be a huge strategic error for Democrats to campaign on the issue. That case was wrong, but perhaps arguable, in March and April 2025 (before the polls had so clearly moved away from the president). But new data proves it is irredeemably flawed.
Trump has given Democrats a chance to turn immigration into a 60-40 or even 70-30 issue, favoring them. Will they take it? [Continue reading…]