What European NATO lacks
For the first time in decades, European NATO must consider fighting without the critical support and capabilities of the US military, the backbone of the alliance. The US is no longer “primarily focused on the security of Europe,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told allies in Brussels on February 12.
Europe is not defenseless. Its militaries have well-trained forces, but they lack the strategic capabilities, command structures, and the sheer firepower necessary to sustain a prolonged conflict independently. From missile defense systems to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, Europe’s security is still heavily dependent on American support, raising urgent questions about what happens if that vanishes.
That’s the bad news, says Maj. Gen. (rtd.) Gordon “Skip” Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and former deputy assistant Secretary General at NATO. The somewhat better news is that Russia continues to fight an exhausting war against Ukraine and is not yet ready to move westward.
But that will change if Russia is given “two, maybe three to five years”, to rebuild its forces while Europe fails to rearm at the same pace, at which point “they would be at a significant disadvantage in a high-intensity fight,” he warned. [Continue reading…]
President Emmanuel Macron said in a prime-time address to France on Wednesday night that Europe must be prepared to go it alone in defending Ukraine, without further assistance from the United States under the Trump administration.
“I want to believe that the U.S. will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case,” Macron said from the Élysée Palace in Paris.
He continued, “Whether we reach peace in Ukraine soon or not, we need to be able to recognize the Russian threat and better defend ourselves in order to deter such attacks. Whatever happens, we need to provide ourselves with more arms, more equipment in terms of defense, to provide a dissuasive force.”
Macron warned that Ukraine cannot be abandoned in its fight against Russia because, he said: “Who can believe that in this context, Russia will stop at Ukraine? Russia has become, and will remain, a threat to France and Europe.”
The French president made clear that France and other European countries must take concrete steps, including investing in defense and military capabilities, to protect the security of their nations and Ukraine’s. [Continue reading…]
The US has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine after Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid on Monday, in another serious blow to Kyiv in the war with Russia.
White House officials indicated that both bans could be lifted if peace talks make progress.
Ukrainian officials suggested the US would no longer provide information about targets inside Russia, hindering Ukraine’s ability to carry out effective long-range drone strikes.
This would also leave Ukraine in the dark over the movements of Russian strategic bomber aircraft and the launches of ballistic missiles.
There were conflicting reports about whether the shut-off covered the activities of Russia’s army in occupied areas of Ukraine.
One source told the Guardian that the US had “completely stopped” providing intelligence, including to Ukraine’s military and domestic security agencies. They said this would have a “very bad impact” on the fight against Russia.
The White House national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said Trump would consider restoring aid to Ukraine if peace talks were arranged and confidence-building measures taken. Discussions were ongoing with Ukraine over a date and place for talks, he told Fox News.
Speaking on Wednesday in his nightly address Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there had been “positive movement” in cooperation with the US. Results were expected next week involving a future meeting between the two sides, he added. On Thursday, Zelenskyy will join 27 EU leaders as they hold emergency talks in Brussels to agree ways to quickly increase their military budgets. [Continue reading…]