Vali Nasr writes:

Israel’s celebration for all but ending Iran’s presence in the Levant will be cut short by the challenges inherent in facing a Turkish sphere of influence there. An ascendant HTS-led government, once it consolidates power in Syria, will reject Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights and will likely not remain neutral on the plight of the Palestinians. Its Sunni Arab links with Palestinians are more organic than those of Iran and Hezbollah. The menace on Israel’s borders could now lie in the new political order in Damascus, backed by Ankara.

For Arab states—from Egypt and Jordan to those in the Persian Gulf—HTS’ triumph in Syria looks like a dangerous echo of the Arab Spring, which they thought they had defeated. Those uprisings challenged authoritarianism in the Arab world with calls for democracy and good government. They were quickly championed by Islamist parties, some accepting democracy and some aiming for rigid Islamic states. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embraced the Arab uprisings, seeing a future for the Arab world that reflected his own vision of Muslim democracy. In return, many Islamist parties embraced Turkey as their inspiration and source of support.

Arab states fought hard to crush Islamist movements in their countries, and that arrayed those states against Turkey. In the end, the Arab states won. Nowhere were the stakes higher for Turkey than in Syria. It actively supported a part of the opposition, which included Islamist factions, and welcomed millions of refugees fleeing the civil war. In that fight, it was Russia and Iran that frustrated Turkey’s efforts to depose Assad. Viewing Assad as Iran’s client, Arab states turned their back on him, but his survival nevertheless fit well with their goal to prevent any ascendancy of Islamism. More recently, they took steps to rebuild ties with Assad and welcome Syria back into the Arab fold.

Now, roughly 14 years after the start of the Syrian uprising, Turkey has finally won its battle to topple Assad and insert itself into Syria. Worryingly for Arab states, this victory is a belated chapter of the Arab Spring, in the form of a resurrection of Islamism as a political force in control of a vital Arab state. [Continue reading…]