Despite climate concerns, young voter turnout slumped and its support split between the parties
For 19-year-old Carson Carpenter, voting for Donald Trump was a “no-brainer.”
Carpenter, who grew up in Prescott, Arizona, and was president of Arizona State University’s College Republicans until this week, said he was mainly influenced by concerns about the economy, particularly affordability. He also strongly believes in environmental protection, and he feels that progress on the environment will continue under Trump.
“I think that people that say Trump is bad for the environment, they would be totally mistaken,” Carpenter said.
As early exit polling comes out, it appears that young voters—often expected to reliably support Democratic candidates—did not vote as a monolith. Although Kamala Harris still took the majority of the youth vote, her margin of support from young voters, 6 points, was much smaller than Biden’s 25 point lead in 2020, and young men—unlike in 2020—broke in favor of Trump.
According to data from AP VoteCast analyzed by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning (CIRCLE) at Tufts University, young women aged 18-29 chose Harris over Trump by an 18-point-margin, but young men chose Trump by 14 points. For comparison, in 2020, young women chose Joe Biden by 32-point-margin and young men also preferred Biden, by 15 points. Results also varied by race, with young white voters preferring Trump, while young Black, Latino and Asian voters strongly favored Harris.
Although Harris’ campaign spurred some initial enthusiasm amongst young voters, disillusionment with the Democratic party persisted. Early exit polling found that national turnout among young voters this year was lower than in 2020, although in the key battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, turnout was somewhat stronger, close to 2020 levels. CIRCLE also found that youth voter registration trailed 2020 levels in most states.
Alice Siu, associate director of the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, said that young voters’ opinions were more diverse than may have been expected. The lab brought together a nationally representative sample of first-time voters this summer to discuss key election issues, including the environment,
“I think sometimes we talk about the youth vote as one bloc, when it’s not really the case,” she said. [Continue reading…]