The diminishing path to a Democratic House majority runs through California

The diminishing path to a Democratic House majority runs through California

Politico reports:

Democrats’ dream of blocking a Republican governing trifecta is dwindling down to a handful of West Coast races, as California’s large cache of still-untallied ballots and its notoriously slow count now take center stage in the national political drama.

The party had long seen the nation’s two blue bulwarks — New York and California — as the decisive staging ground for their quest to retake the House majority. In the Empire State, it flipped two GOP-held seats, a rare bright spot in an otherwise nightmarish election night for Democrats.

But after Republicans ousted two Pennsylvania Democratic incumbents, the GOP appears the slight favorite to keep its narrow majority in the House — an outlook party leaders such as Speaker Mike Johnson and Republican campaign chief, Rep. Richard Hudson, touted on Wednesday as they asserted their party was poised to retain control of the chamber.

Hudson, in a Wednesday interview on Fox News, credited the party’s performance largely to President-elect Donald Trump, calling him “a net positive everywhere across the country for Republicans.”

One Republican working closely on House races believes that, at worst, the party will only lose one seat, and that the GOP could pick up a seat or two. (Republicans currently hold a 220-212 advantage in the chamber).

Democratic Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, meanwhile, urged against a rush to judgment. In a statement, he insisted “the party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined,” and identified “too close to call pick-up opportunities” in Iowa, Arizona, Oregon and California as a tenuous path to winning the House.

Most pressure bears down squarely on the Golden State, where Democrats hoped to flip as many as five red seats, as well as hold on to the swingy Orange County district being vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. As of Wednesday, Republicans held the lead, mostly with narrow margins, in all six races. [Continue reading…]

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