Carl Bildt writes:

As Ukrainian forces expand their area of control in Russia’s Kursk region in the second week of their incursion, it’s clear that they will eventually have to go home. After all, the principle of territorial integrity is at the very core of Ukraine’s fight and the firm international reaction to Russia’s attempt to change Europe’s borders through conquest.

But that’s not the issue for today, and I will leave it to the experts to assess the military significance of the operation. It has clearly demonstrated significant weakness in Russia’s border defenses, set off confusion in Moscow’s chain of command, and proved Ukraine’s continued talent for surprising moves.

But wars are political as well as military, and it’s in the political arena where Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has fundamentally changed the course of the conflict.

After the obvious failure of Ukraine’s much-hyped 2023 counteroffensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin worked hard to convince Ukraine and the world that it would only be a matter of time before the Russian steamroller inevitably ground Ukraine into submission, village by village. Putin calculated that if enough people bought into this narrative, Ukraine would be forced to eventually give up and be absorbed, either partially or entirely, into his greater Russia.

Putin’s strategy has had some success. The Russian military’s attempt at a major offensive in the Kharkiv region a few months ago soon fizzled out; Russian forces still don’t seem capable of that kind of effort against entrenched defenders. But over the course of the summer, Putin’s forces have been making incremental gains along the Donbas front line at the cost of tremendous losses in Russian lives and equipment. None of these gains have had any major military significance, but they were enough to give a dime of credibility to Putin’s narrative of gradually grinding down Ukrainian defenses.

And then, like a bolt out of the blue, comes the Kursk offensive, destroying what Putin has been trying to build. The Russian leader is clearly rattled. During a series of hastily convened meetings with his security council and other advisors, he’s been trying to play down Ukraine’s successes by calling them a “provocation,” admonishing regional governors not to mention the size of Ukraine’s area of control, looking sternly at his military commanders, and trying to appear unmoved by the sudden turn of events.

We know that Putin sometimes has a distorted view of reality. But he most certainly understands that if his forces don’t drive the Ukrainians back over the border soon, it will be a mortal blow to the narrative and political line he has carefully—and at great cost—been trying to build since last summer. [Continue reading…]