Jonathan Martin writes:

The pictures and film of Trump rallying the crowd will likely be the enduring image of this election and perhaps his entire political career.

Even before President Biden’s catastrophic debate last month, Trump had run on a platform of strength, portraying himself as a politically muscular figure against a weak and aging incumbent president. Next week’s Republican nominating convention will deliver Trump a hero’s welcome and an audience to match, befitting a party leader who had a brush with death.

“The raised fist will become the iconic symbol of the convention,” predicted longtime GOP strategist Mike Murphy.

Convention planners had already successive evening themes dedicated to making America “safe” and “strong” again, sessions that will, along with Trump’s expected cameo with his new running mate the opening night, be vivified with new meaning after the shooting.

The former president is likely to enjoy a rallying effect in immediate polls, with more independents likely shifting his way. “There will be some good, old-fashioned American compassion for Trump,” predicted Murphy, who opposes the former president’s campaign.

What’s less clear is whether the shooting hastens Democratic calls for Biden to withdraw from the race. Most elected Democrats responded to the shooting by denouncing political violence and few wanted to discuss how it may echo in the campaign.

Yet in private, many Democratic political veterans were bracing for Trump to enjoy a convention bounce larger than he could have ever hoped to enjoy in such divided times. And it wasn’t difficult to detect a sense of doom, that an already uphill campaign may have become out of reach. One longtime strategist invoked Bill Clinton’s memorable line about “strong and wrong” always trumping “weak and right.”

What worried Democrats the most was whether Biden could rise to the moment, whether he’d appear more like a forceful Lyndon Johnson addressing a joint session of Congress after Kennedy’s murder or the elderly looking House speaker, John McCormack, sitting on the rostrum.

Shortly before the shooting, the president shouted down a Democratic representative on a conference call aimed at steadying his listing candidacy and demonstrating to nervous lawmakers he was capable of forging ahead. But the call unnerved even some of Biden’s most dedicated allies, who lamented how insecure and defensive the president sounded when the lawmaker, Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), questioned Biden’s ability to argue he could remain commander-in-chief. [Continue reading…]