RFE/RL spoke with George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War:

Barros: Moving forward, a major question is whether the Ukrainians will be capable of actually conducting counteroffensives to liberate the territory that the Russians have taken since the beginning of the war.

I would say that we’ve not seen a Ukrainian capability to actually retake territory that the Russians are serious about defending. The territory that the Ukrainians recaptured in and around Kyiv and Kharkiv in the north is largely because the Russians withdrew. It was reported in many instances as Ukrainian forces liberating these territories, but it was actually due in large part to the Russians simply just withdrawing and the Ukrainians moving in.

There’s evidence right now of intense fighting on some territory where the Russians are actually trying to maintain a foothold, such as north of Kharkiv or also on the southern front near Mykolayiv and Kherson, where there is a big back and forth with the Ukrainians pushing in and then the Russian counterattacking and retaking those areas. So, the kind of Ukrainian gains there have been small and the Russian defense seems to be pretty good.

I think the key takeaway is that for the Russians it’s a lot easier to hold territory that they’ve controlled than to capture new territory. Also, conversely for the Ukrainians, it’s easier for them to defend territory from Russian attacks than to recapture and liberate Russian-held territory. [Continue reading…]