Economic recession fears could be overblown
If there is a recession brewing in the United States, it would be news to Doug Johnson.
The president of Marion Manufacturing Co. in Cheshire, Conn., Johnson is enjoying some of the best times in his company’s 76-year history. Sure, he’s heard the negative chatter about rising prices, sinking stocks and mounting risks from trouble overseas. And he’s seen the polls showing that most Americans think the economy is headed for a tumble.
But as Johnson looks out over his 30,000-square-foot operation, all he sees are busy workers racing to keep up with new orders for a variety of vital steel and copper components, including those used in electrocardiograms and cable television hookups. His biggest problem is finding enough labor to handle all the metal-bending work that is coming his way.
“There’s so much pent-up demand, and everybody I talk to — our suppliers and our customers — says the same,” he said. “We’re up 40 percent over last year and climbing. This month, we were up 100 percent over last year. It’s incredible.”
Johnson’s upbeat view stands in stark contrast to more prominent figures’ deepening gloom. On Wednesday, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorganChase, warned that “a hurricane” is bearing down on the U.S. economy.
Tesla chief Elon Musk and Lawrence Summers, a former treasury secretary, also have warned of a looming recession. In a Quinnipiac University poll last month, 85 percent of Americans agreed a downturn was either “very” or “somewhat likely” in the next year.
Yet Marion Manufacturing’s good fortune — echoed by continued strength in consumer spending and signals from Wall Street — suggests that such dire assessments may be wrong. On Friday, the Labor Department said the economy gained 390,000 jobs in May, beating analysts’ expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. [Continue reading…]