Alar Karis, President of Estonia, writes:

The peace that had reigned in Europe since the end of the Balkan wars seemed to many to be permanent. The prevailing mindset was that conflict between nations which in the 20th century would have culminated in war could now be resolved diplomatically. Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008, its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and its overt support for separatists in Donbas were not enough to shake this faith in peace.

Russia’s aggressive foreign policy certainly rattled those countries that feel Moscow’s chill breath on their necks. But in many capitals, the frayed nerves on the eastern edge of NATO and the EU were looked upon with a certain disdain. We were, they asserted, merely suffering from post-traumatic stress due to our history. More tactful, but no less dismissive, were the reassurances that central and eastern Europe had nothing to fear: there was no chance of Russia starting a war in Europe.

Those who said these things have been forced to admit that they were wrong and that we were right all along.

Some countries favoured positive engagement with Russia. They hoped that tying up a dangerous, neurotic partner with economic deals would result in mutual dependence and the partner losing all interest in going to war. This too was a mistake – as many of those who pursued it have now admitted.

There is no schadenfreude to be derived from this, at least for me. I feel only heavy-hearted. Nonplussed that even in Estonia in late 2021, the prevailing thought was that as much of a danger as Russia presented, it was very unlikely to launch a large-scale military attack in Europe. We did not want to believe that this irrational solution was possible.

My legal adviser, Hent Kalmo, one of Estonia’s foremost philosophers of law, wrote in the cultural weekly Sirp that, “In hindsight, the attack against Ukraine reads like the story of a murder admitted to in advance. Up until the very last moment, no one wanted to see it as anything other than a diplomatic manoeuvre, or to believe that the wheels of the Russian war machine were about to start rolling.” [Continue reading…]