‘Russia is fighting — but Ukraine is winning’
Russia has stumbled again. Its southern offensive, the second phase of the Ukraine war, has failed to be the “biggest tank war since World War II,” as some analysts were predicting. Instead, Russia’s ground forces have shown the same lackluster performance on the ground, unable to break through anywhere.
The towns and villages of the south, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday, “are the places where the fate of this war and the future of our state is being decided, now.”
Experts point to May 9th—Victory Day in Russia commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945—as the next decisive milestone for Vladimir Putin. By that date, they say, Russia will either find some way to declare some kind of victory and cease fighting, or May 9th will trigger a transition from Russia’s “special military operation” to “war.” Then Russia will undertake a mobilization on a national scale to defeat Ukraine, with the threat of Moscow escalating further.
On the ground, though, Putin’s forces are now spread thin, exhausted, and show no real signs of renewal. U.S. military and intelligence observers tell Newsweek the big offensive expected in the south has already turned into a deadlock: neither side can fully defeat the other, they say. [Continue reading…]