The Observer reports:

The tragedy discovered amid the rubble of Bucha and Borodianka overshadowed any jubilation that Kyiv had defeated Russian forces that had spent a month trying to envelop the capital and snuff out the Ukrainian nation. Nevertheless, the defeat of Russian forces in the north marks a turning point in the war. For the medium term, Ukraine will now survive. But for its soldiers there is no respite, for having had its first objective denied Moscow has turned its gaze on the Donbas, where a major offensive is imminent.

The Donbas has been at war for eight years. More than 90 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2021 defending the line of contact. Since late February Ukrainian positions have come under regular artillery fire, with mobilised civilians from Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk pushed into attacks on the Ukrainian trenches. The aim of this Russian activity was to fix the 40,000 Ukrainian troops in the Joint Forces Operations (JFO) area, preventing them from impacting the fights for Mariupol, Kharkiv or Kyiv.

In the coming days the JFO is destined to become the focus of Russian attention. Having seized a land corridor from Rostov to Kherson, Russian forces are preparing to punch northwards to cut off lines of supply to Donetsk. Further Russian units – some newly formed and some repositioned – are forming up to push south around Luhansk from Kharkiv to complete the encirclement.

The battle will be very different from the advance on Kyiv. Russian units at the beginning of the war were not ready or supplied for heavy fighting. Now the Russians appreciate what they are up against and with only two axes to support can concentrate their supplies. Russian air defences have good coverage over the Donbas and they will likely be able to bring significant air power to bear. Combined with their advantage in artillery, and the fact that the fighting will be in the countryside rather than into urban centres, Ukrainian troops will need to manoeuvre to survive. [Continue reading…]