Jason Burke writes:

As the Taliban prepare to rule Afghanistan after sweeping across the country in less than a week, an obvious question is what does this mean for the future of al-Qaida and other extremist Islamist groups committed to waging a global jihad.

There is no doubt that the astonishing rapidity of the Taliban’s victory will deliver a tremendous boost to Islamist extremists everywhere – whether al-Qaida, Islamic State, fighters in Mozambique or Syria, or jihadi fanboys in bedsits in Birmingham or Manila.

Last week the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, told Sky when asked about Afghanistan that he was “absolutely worried that failed states are breeding grounds for those types of people” and that “al-Qaida will probably come back”.

Wallace was right to worry about failed states – the 9/11 attacks of 2001 were planned and prepared by al-Qaida in Afghanistan when it was ruled by the Taliban – but wrong about the group making some kind of return. Al-Qaida is already there.

Just last month, the UN published an assessment based on intelligence received from member states stating that al-Qaida “is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces”, and al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, an affiliate of the group, “operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz provinces.” Al-Qaida’s media celebrate its fighters’ apparently frequent operations in Afghanistan. [Continue reading…]