Olga Khazan writes:

Some experts are worried that the period following this election may become as chaotic and violent as the early 1970s. Extremists recently plotted to kidnap the governor of Michigan. Militias have recruited police and soldiers into their ranks. The president has encouraged his supporters to monitor polling places, has told the extremist Proud Boys to “stand by,” and has agreed to a peaceful transfer of power only with heavy caveats. “All the signs are pointing to a high risk of violence right now,” Cynthia Miller-Idriss, who runs the Polarization and Extremism Research Innovation Lab at American University, told me recently.

As in the late ’60s and early ’70s, America today crackles with rage and tension, the kind that political scientists worry about. “We are more polarized than at any time since the lead-up to the Civil War,” says Thomas Zeitzoff, a politics professor at American University. “We have two different, large protests: the protests against police racism and … far-right militia groups. And you have a president who is prepping and priming his supporters to delegitimize his results.”

Just a few months ago, armed demonstrators gathered at the Michigan State Capitol to protest stay-at-home orders intended to reduce deaths from COVID-19. “If you saw that in another country, a bunch of people showing up in a state House with semiautomatic weapons? Those things definitely can spiral,” Zeitzoff says.

Disputed elections in which the process seems murky are more likely to lead to protests and violence. As are moments when people tie up their entire identities with their political party: The consequences of losing an election become unbearable, and some people may feel they need to rescue their nation through heroic action. In this kind of environment, “people are more inclined to do everything they can in order to ensure that they’re winning elections, even if that means using violence, even if that means engaging in acts of extremism,” says Arie Perliger, a security-studies professor at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell.

The most likely sources of violence today are far-right, rather than far-left, groups. “Objectively, there’s been more violence and more lethal violence committed by the far right,” Zeitzoff says. The experts I spoke with believe that any violence after this election is likely to be spontaneous and localized, with, say, right-wing militias and left-wing activists clashing in a few cities.

The worst-case scenario is this: Friendly sheriffs allow armed groups to intimidate voters at the polls on Election Day. Trump narrowly leads on Election Night, then mail-in ballots start to be counted and shift the race against him. Trump somehow signals to his base to take matters into their own hands, and they do. People might lash out against minorities, rival protest groups, or the symbols of both, such as synagogues. [Continue reading…]