Findings, music, and occasional reflections by Paul Woodward

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Warren as VP would lead to Biden victory, say prominent Democratic pollster

Politico reports:

Stan Greenberg, one of the Democratic Party’s longtime leading pollsters, urged Hillary Clinton in 2016 to pick Elizabeth Warren as her vice president. He thinks Clinton would be president had she listened.

Now Greenberg — who popularized the term “Reagan Democrats” and came to prominence as Bill Clinton’s lead pollster — is urging Joe Biden’s team to heed the same advice.

Earlier this month, he briefed top Biden campaign officials on two battleground surveys conducted by his firm. Accompanied by a slide presentation that was obtained by POLITICO, Greenberg addressed the question hanging over Biden and his inner circle: Which vice presidential candidate will help the most in November?

The conclusion was blunt: “Sen. Warren is the obvious solution.”

Biden’s biggest problem, Greenberg said, is that the Democratic Party has not unified behind him. In fact, Biden is now behind where Clinton was with Bernie Sanders voters in 2016, with more than 20 percent of the democratic socialist’s backers saying they would not vote for him, even as 87 percent of them pledge to vote for a Democrat for Congress. At a similar point in the 2016 cycle, roughly 15 percent of Sanders voters said they wouldn’t vote for Hillary Cllinton and Greenberg’s own polling through Democracy Corps around Election Day found the same.

“They lean towards the Democrats, but Biden’s not getting their votes yet,” Greenberg told POLITICO. [Continue reading…]

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