The Daily Beast reports:

Presumably there will be some agreement in the not too distant future as the Taliban give Trump enough concessions to save face, but they know what they call the “evacuation” of all American forces, whether in uniform or as covert or contract operatives, will demoralize the U.S.-backed regime in Kabul and especially the Afghan military and security forces. These local soldiers and police, after 17 years and tens of thousands of casualties in their ranks, still remain largely dependent on American support, especially from the air.

There are many precedents indicating what to expect when such dependent troops see their patrons abandoning them. Typically, large numbers lose the will to fight and they flee, surrender, or change sides.

Such was the case after peace talks with Hanoi allowed Richard Nixon political cover to withdraw all American combat troops by the end of 1973 only to see Saigon fall to North Vietnam in the spring of 1975, less than two years later.

When the Israelis were ending their occupation of South Lebanon in 2000 they quickly discovered that the militias they created and armed there were selling them out and forging covert alliances with their enemy.

Already, Taliban sources tell The Daily Beast they are looking at what Afghan military units—perhaps entire bases—are most likely to come over to their side as the Americans withdraw. [Continue reading…]