Muhammad Idrees Ahmad writes:

Much of Europe is eager to see the conflict end so that Syria could be designated “post-conflict” and its people repatriated. Myopic proposals have circulated since 2014 for using reconstruction funds as an incentive to secure Assad’s cooperation. But any time refugees are forced to return to an undeterrable state like Syria, they are being sent to an uncertain future with their properties confiscated, facing possible torture or death. Assad has suffered no consequences for his extensively documented crimes; there is nothing stopping him from committing more.

As the country that will be most affected, Turkey does not want to see Idlib fall. Too weak to confront Russia, it is now threatening to act against the Kurds east of the Euphrates, displacing yet another vulnerable population. Idlib’s fall has the potential to put Turkey at odds with the U.S. government, and Iran’s triumph in Syria could trigger a wider war involving Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The moral hazard in dealing with international crises by deferring the risk onto the victims is immense. But in passively accepting the collapse of every humanitarian norm, the West is also ceding to a brutish new order. The Geneva Conventions were not perfect, and few belligerents haven’t violated them. But they contain ideals worth preserving.

If a state makes the systematic violation of international law official government policy and suffers no consequences, then the ideals are lost to everyone. If Assad isn’t held accountable for his mass crimes, then the precedent would embolden all autocrats. If Iraq taught the world the perils of unprovoked action, then Syria demonstrates the dangers of provocative inaction. [Continue reading…]