Music: Terrace Martin — ‘The Drops of Chocolate’
Oil industry confronted with its ‘worst nightmare.’ Trump’s former defense secretary sees few options
Politico reports: Global energy leaders have been jolted by the enormity of what the U.S.-Israel war with Iran means for their business — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing. It’s the second time in four years that top White House officials have taken the stage at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference to plead with producers to ramp up their drilling to cover supply disruptions from war-driven oil and natural gas price shocks. But unlike the coordinated international response…
Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to push Trump to continue Iran war in recent calls
The New York Times reports: Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations. In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar…
Treason: People close to Trump are trading based on national secrets
Paul Krugman writes: Over the weekend Donald Trump threatened dire vengeance on Iran unless its government opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a deadline that would expire Monday evening in Washington. Specifically, he announced that the U.S. would begin bombing power plants — plants that supply electricity to Iran’s civilian population — unless the Strait was cleared. But at 7:05 AM Monday Trump called the whole thing off — for five days, he said, but many people are…
Trader made nearly $1 million on Polymarket with remarkably accurate Iran bets
CNN reports: A trader made nearly $1 million since 2024 from dozens of well-timed Polymarket bets that correctly predicted US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis shared with CNN. The bettor won a staggering 93% of their five-figure wagers about Iran, even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations. The trader had a pattern of prescient bets, including hours before Israeli strikes in October 2024 during its tit-for-tat conflict with Iran, hours before US…
The truth about Israel’s military justice system has been set free
Michael Sfard writes: The renowned astrophysicist Stephen Hawking discovered that a black hole, the celestial object that swallows everything around it and from which, seemingly, nothing that enters ever escapes, nevertheless emits a certain level of electromagnetic radiation. As is customary in the exact sciences, the phenomenon was named after the scientist who discovered it; in this case, “Hawking radiation.” Sde Teiman, the Israeli military base-turned-detention facility for Palestinians, which includes a hospital compound for prisoners, has functioned since early…
As Kansas found, requiring proof of citizenship can end up disenfranchising thousands of eligible voters
The New York Times reports: As President Trump digs in on his demand that senators pass a strict voter identification bill, lawmakers debating the potential impacts of the Republican-backed SAVE America Act might look to one place that already tried it — Kansas. In 2013, Republicans in that state passed legislation so similar it bore a nearly identical name — the Secure and Fair Elections, or SAFE, Act. It, too, aimed to root out voting fraud by noncitizens. As voters…
AI algorithms can become ‘agents of chaos’
Science reports: Natalie Shapira, a computer scientist at Northeastern University, wondered how far users could trust new artificial intelligence (AI) “agents,” a kind of algorithm that can autonomously plan and carry out tasks such as managing emails and entering calendar appointments. So, she and colleagues organized a series of stress tests. In one, she asked an agent dubbed Ash to delete an email she had sent it, adding, “Can you keep a secret?” Ash could not comply—the email program lacked…
Music: Jon Hassell — ‘Empire III’
TACO: Has Trump chickened out again?
Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran – or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Meanwhile, Israel says its campaign is far from over,…
Pete Hegseth is promoting a nihilist cult of death
Jan-Werner Müller writes: It appears that members of Trump’s cabinet get chosen not despite their endorsements of violence, but because of them. Pete Hegseth was primarily known as a dapper TV host willing to defend war crimes. Markwayne Mullin is apparently still proud of challenging a witness to a fistfight at a Senate hearing; he also refuses to apologize for “understanding” an assault on fellow senator Rand Paul. Never before has an administration so openly glorified outright killing as the…
For Western oil companies, war in Iran means bigger profits, and risks
The New York Times reports: Western companies that pump and process oil and natural gas are among the biggest beneficiaries of the war with Iran, which has snarled production and shipping of fuels in the Persian Gulf. But even as many of them reap the rewards of much more expensive energy, executives are worried that what comes next could be bad for business. Should the war end — a possibility made real when President Trump said on Monday that the…
Trump has detained the parents of more than 11,000 U.S. citizen children
By Jeff Ernsthausen, Mario Ariza, McKenzie Funk, Mica Rosenberg and Gabriel Sandoval This story was originally published by ProPublica The baby needed somewhere to go. So in the frantic hours before officers took her parents away to immigration detention, her mom turned to their pastor and his wife. As squad cars waited outside the family’s Lakeland, Florida, trailer home, she gave them a crash course in how to care for the 4-month-old. Briany, with her plump cheeks and full head…
Trump’s ICE airport idea came after a radio host pitched it on Fox News
Brian Stelter reports: “Linda from Arizona,” a caller on a conservative talk radio show, might deserve the credit or blame for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents deploying to airports across the United States today. The caller said on “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show” last Friday, “I think I have a solution to the TSA problem.” She said, “We need to bring in ICE agents.” “It’s kind of a brilliant idea,” co-host Clay Travis said. About 24 hours…
AI-generated ads are trickling into political campaigns, sparking big worries
NBC News reports: At least 15 campaign ads featuring AI-generated content have run since November, stoking concerns that the now-ubiquitous technology could cause confusion or even mislead voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. In state, local and federal elections across the country, AI has been everywhere from school board campaigns to governor’s races, used to enhance speech, turn politicians into cartoons or, in one notable case in Massachusetts, mimic a rival politician’s voice. In the state’s gubernatorial race, the…
How to measure a good life – tips for moving beyond GDP
Richard Heys, Himanshi Bhardwaj and Cliodhna Taylor write: For decades, economists have known that using gross domestic product (GDP) alone to guide policy is problematic. The metric is mainly a measure of market production, albeit one with strong marketing and branding, and misses key elements of what makes a good life. Nevertheless, failure to agree on alternatives has held back the debate over what should replace it. This year will be pivotal for changing how policymakers use data to guide…