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Category: Science/mathematics

Could ‘innate immunology’ protect us from the coronavirus?

Could ‘innate immunology’ protect us from the coronavirus?

Melinda Wenner Moyer writes: As the world waits for a coronavirus vaccine, tens of thousands of people could die. But some scientists believe a vaccine might already exist. Surprising new research in a niche area of immunology suggests that certain live vaccines that have been around for decades could, possibly, protect against the coronavirus. The theory is that these vaccines could make people less likely to experience serious symptoms — or even any symptoms — if they catch it. At…

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The months of magical thinking: As the coronavirus swept over China, some experts were in denial

The months of magical thinking: As the coronavirus swept over China, some experts were in denial

Helen Branswell writes: The response to the coronavirus pandemic in the United States and other countries has been hobbled by a host of factors, many involving political and regulatory officials. Resistance to social distancing measures, testing debacles, and longtime failures to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic all played a role. But a subtler, less-recognized factor contributed to the wasting of precious weeks in January and February, when preparations to try to stop the virus should have kicked immediately…

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Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis

Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis

Sharon Begley writes: As epidemiologists attempt to scope out what Covid-19 has in store for the U.S. this summer and beyond, they see several potential futures, differing by how often and how severely the no-longer-new coronavirus continues to wallop humankind. But while these scenarios diverge on key details — how much transmission will decrease over the summer, for instance, and how many people have already been infected (and possibly acquired immunity) — they almost unanimously foresee a world that, even…

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The coronavirus genome is like a shipping label that lets epidemiologists track where it’s been

The coronavirus genome is like a shipping label that lets epidemiologists track where it’s been

The steady rate of genetic changes lets researchers recreate how a virus has travelled. nextstrain.org, CC BY By Bert Ely, University of South Carolina and Taylor Carter, University of South Carolina Following the coronavirus’s spread through the population – and anticipating its next move – is an important part of the public health response to the new disease, especially since containment is our only defense so far. Just looking at an infected person doesn’t tell you where their version of…

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Expert report predicts up to two more years of coronavirus pandemic misery

Expert report predicts up to two more years of coronavirus pandemic misery

CNN reports: The new coronavirus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years—until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a report released Thursday. They recommended that the US prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted. “This…

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Should you get an antibody test?

Should you get an antibody test?

James Hamblin writes: The road to ending social distancing is less contentious than it may seem. Many priorities are clear: Invest in comprehensive testing for the coronavirus, in effectively treating the disease, and in vaccine development and production. Invest in research to understand transmission of the virus, and precisely how to prevent it. The fundamental mystery to solve is how people develop immunity, the key to which will be testing for antibodies in the blood. Identifying antibodies will help inform…

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How long will a coronavirus vaccine really take?

How long will a coronavirus vaccine really take?

The New York Times: A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months. The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine…

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U.S. Covid-19 death toll is far higher than reported, CDC data suggests

U.S. Covid-19 death toll is far higher than reported, CDC data suggests

The New York Times reports: Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus. The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent…

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Why Covid-19 patients should be going to hospitals sooner

Why Covid-19 patients should be going to hospitals sooner

  Dr. Richard Levitan, an airway specialist who has practiced emergency medicine for over 30 years, is well aware of the urgency of their work. When the virus began to overwhelm New York City at the end of March, he rushed from his home in New Hampshire to volunteer at Bellevue Hospital, where he trained. Dr. Levitan recently wrote an op-ed in the New York Times detailing what he’s learned from treating COVID-19 patients at Bellevue. He also has co-founded…

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Why the coronavirus is so confusing

Why the coronavirus is so confusing

Ed Yong writes: On March 27, as the U.S. topped 100,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, Donald Trump stood at the lectern of the White House press-briefing room and was asked what he’d say about the pandemic to a child. Amid a meandering answer, Trump remarked, “You can call it a germ, you can call it a flu, you can call it a virus. You know, you can call it many different names. I’m not sure anybody even knows what it…

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Ohio’s GOP governor surges in popularity as he splits from Trump

Ohio’s GOP governor surges in popularity as he splits from Trump

The New York Times reports: For 40 years, Mike DeWine rose steadily if blandly up the ladder of Ohio politics, finally landing his dream job as governor. He took office last year as a familiar figure in the state, not because of any indelible political identify, but because, at 72, he had been around forever. But the coronavirus crisis has made Mr. DeWine something that decades in elected offices never did: a household name. A Republican, he took early and…

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Trump’s response to coronavirus reflects his contempt for science

Trump’s response to coronavirus reflects his contempt for science

The New York Times reports: At a March visit with doctors and researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the public health agency at the heart of the fight against the coronavirus, President Trump spoke words of praise for the scientific acumen in the building — particularly his own. “Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability,” Mr. Trump said. It was a striking boast, even…

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Antibody surveys that seem to indicate a vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

Antibody surveys that seem to indicate a vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

Science reports: Surveying large swaths of the public for antibodies to the new coronavirus promises to show how widespread undiagnosed infections are, how deadly the virus really is, and whether enough of the population has become immune for social distancing measures to be eased. But the first batch of results has generated more controversy than clarity. The survey results, from Germany, the Netherlands, and several locations in the United States, find that anywhere from 2% to 30% of certain populations…

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In race for a coronavirus vaccine, an Oxford University lab leaps ahead

In race for a coronavirus vaccine, an Oxford University lab leaps ahead

The New York Times reports: In the worldwide race for a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, the laboratory sprinting fastest is at Oxford University. Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a head start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans. That…

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The more we learn about the coronavirus, the harder it is to understand

The more we learn about the coronavirus, the harder it is to understand

David Wallace-Wells writes: We are now almost six months into this pandemic, which began in November in Wuhan, with 50,000 Americans dead and 200,000 more around the world. If each of those deaths is a data point, together they represent a quite large body of evidence from which to form a clear picture of the pandemic threat. Early in the epidemic, the coronavirus was seen as a variant of a familiar family of disease, not a mysterious ailment, however infectious…

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Unlike New York, Seattle’s approach to Covid-19 mirrored Epidemic Intelligence Service’s guidelines

Unlike New York, Seattle’s approach to Covid-19 mirrored Epidemic Intelligence Service’s guidelines

Charles Duhigg writes: The first diagnosis of the coronavirus in the United States occurred in mid-January, in a Seattle suburb not far from the hospital where Dr. Francis Riedo, an infectious-disease specialist, works. When he heard the patient’s details—a thirty-five-year-old man had walked into an urgent-care clinic with a cough and a slight fever, and told doctors that he’d just returned from Wuhan, China—Riedo said to himself, “It’s begun.” For more than a week, Riedo had been e-mailing with a…

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