How the war in Ukraine might end
Keith Gessen writes: When we first spoke, in early September, [Hein] Goemans [a leading theorist on war termination] predicted a protracted conflict. None of the three main variables of war-termination theory—information, credible commitment, and domestic politics—had been resolved. Both sides still believed that they could win, and their distrust for each other was deepening by the day. As for domestic politics, Putin was exactly the sort of leader that Goemans had warned about. Despite his significant repressive apparatus, he did…